The Pump Is the Poll

High gas prices and a rising cost of living are building a wave against the party in power. Washington may be the last to notice.

Every election comes down to a question voters ask at the kitchen table: are things getting better or worse for me? This fall, the answer starts at the gas pump. The national average for regular gas set a September record of $4.33 a gallon, about $1.25 more than a year earlier. Gasoline alone drove more than half of September's 0.6% jump in consumer prices.

When filling a tank and a grocery cart costs more every month, voters don't sort out who is to blame. They hold the party in power responsible. That is anti-incumbency in its simplest form, and it has decided American elections for decades.

History keeps repeating

• 1980: Inflation and an energy shock sank the party in power. The president lost re-election and his party lost control of the Senate.
• 2008: Gas topped $4 a gallon that summer. The party holding the White House lost it and lost seats in both chambers.
• 2024: Frustration over the cost of living helped voters remove the party in the White House again.

The stock market won't save them

The administration's one saving grace has been Wall Street. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93 on October 6, and for anyone with a 401(k) that is real money. Now even that is wobbling. A sell-off in AI stocks and hotter-than-expected inflation, which has raised talk of a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushed the S&P 500 down to 7,659 by Friday's close, a weekly loss of about 2%. The Nasdaq fell 4.5% for the week. And even at its peak, a record market doesn't pay for gas. People feel prices every week and check their retirement accounts a few times a year. In 2018 stocks were near record highs too, and the party in power still lost 40 House seats.

The view from inside the bubble

A party in power hears mostly from its own advisors, donors and data dashboards. Those voices say inflation is easing, markets are strong and the base is loyal. None of that is what a commuter feels at the pump on a Monday morning. When leaders start trusting the briefing room over the street, they lose touch with the people who vote. That disconnect has ended careers and sunk parties again and again, and voters always notice it before the people in charge do.

Why the polls may still be missing it

Angry voters often don't announce themselves to pollsters. They skip surveys, hang up or call themselves undecided, then show up and vote for change. The polls already show Democrats ahead by about 8 points on the generic ballot, with the president's approval in the mid-30s. My view is that the anger runs deeper than those numbers capture. That is why ElectPulse's Gas Price Effect projection adds 3 points for Democrats on top of the polls.

What could prove me wrong

Gas prices are already easing, from about $4.41 at the start of October to $4.30 as of October 18. If they keep falling, some of the anger could cool before people vote. That happened in 2022: gas peaked above $5 in June but had dropped by November, and the party in power did better than expected. And anger only counts if it reaches the ballot box.

On November 3 we will find out whether the pump was the poll that mattered. My bet is that it was.

Sources: AAA gas prices · September CPI (Trading Economics) · S&P 500 record close, Oct 6 · Stock closes, Oct 16 (AP) · Market recap, Oct 16 (Yahoo Finance) · Generic ballot (Silver Bulletin)